How Confirmation Bias Actually Work & Cause Judgement Errors?
Four biases work in sync to cause judgment errors
1. Formation of initial belief/impression: We start with an initial hypothesis; it could be based on first impression, interpretation of initial behaviour, or certain past experiences. Usually, heuristics from our life’s prior experience help us form this initial belief.
2. Confirmation Bias: Over time, we selectively look at the info that validates our initial belief or impression.
Why do we do it? Because our mind wants to be at peace and in coherence. Everyone likes validation!
3. Hindsight Bias: After a few instances of confirmation bias, we weave a story in hindsight and start believing that our “first belief” was correct.
Why? Again our mind wants to be at peace and in coherence.
How does it play out? Ever heard people saying:
“I knew this was going to happen”
“I knew this person is going to do like this”
4. The unfortunate part is, once these three come together, a fourth one gets triggered i.e. self-fulfilling prophecy.
How self-fulfilling affects you? You believe a certain thing, so you behave in a certain way; because you behave in a certain way, what you believe initially starts happening.
How can one come out of it?
Extremely difficult to do but the following two points may help.
1. Having openness and humility to believe that one could be wrong.
You’ll be feeling you are absolutely right with your mind in coherence but you still are willing to question if there was anything wrong with it. Charlie Munger says it is a sign of intellectual integrity.
2. Seek disconfirming beliefs and do not dismiss those as exceptions in the light of confirmation bias. e.g. ask what points does one have to support their story? what points are against it?
